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Lung India Official publication of Indian Chest Society  
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Year : 2006  |  Volume : 23  |  Issue : 2  |  Page : 70-74

Evaluation of the predictors for duration of mechanical ventilation in respiratory intensive care unit

Department of Medicine, Pulmonary Medicine and Sleep Center, Maulana Azad Medical College and Lok Nayak Hospital, New Delhi - 110 002., India

Correspondence Address:
H S Hira
House 74, Block 21, Lodi Colony, New Delhi - 110 003.
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None

DOI: 10.4103/0970-2113.44412

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Background: Mechanical ventilation (MV) is a life saving modality. Till no method is evolved to predict the duration of this treatment. This study is undertaken to evaluate the clinical and laboratory parameters at initiation and 48 hour of the patient being treated by mechanical ventilation; and correlate these parameters with the duration of MV required. Methods: It was prospective observational study conducted in the respiratory intensive care unit (RICU) of a tertiary referral and teaching hospital. Thirty consecutive patients suffering from various medical diseases requiring MV were the participants. Clinical, laboratory, ventilatory parameters and six severity scores viz.; GCS, APACHE-II, SAPS, OSF, ALI/ARDS and Sepsis/Septic shock criteria of each patient, both at initiation and at 48 hour of MV were recorded. Correlation between various severity scores at initiation and at 48 hour of initiation with duration of mechanical ventilation was computed. Results: Based on the duration of mechanical ventilation required, the patients were divided in two groups. Those requiring mechanical ventilation <7 days and >7 days were designated Group I and Group II respectively. Three out of 6 severity scores (GCS, APACHE-II, SAPS) recorded at 48 hour of MV showed statistically significant difference between the both groups with p value of 0.010, 0.009 and 0.006 respectively. Further stepwise logistic regression analysis showed that SAPS score at 48 hour of initiation was the best predictor of duration of MV. It was found that a cut off value of 15 for SAPS score at 48 hour might predict the duration of MV i.e. <7days or >7 days. Based on linear regression analysis a simple equation was formulated by putting the SAPS value at 48 hour, the value of Y was computed. If MV required was less than 7 days, the value of Y was more than - 0.172 and if need of mechanical ventilation was more than 7 days, Y was less than -0.1720. Conclusions: For patients requiring MV the clinical, laboratory, ventilatory parameters and severity scores at 48 hour of initiation of MV were more significantly correlated to duration of MV as compared to those at initiation. So the parameters and severity score at 48 hour may help to anticipate the approximate duration of MV. Further a cut off value of 15 for SAPS score at 48 hour helped to predict the duration of mechanical ventilation. The calculation of Y from evolved equation is presumed to predict the duration of requirement of MV.

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